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Abstract The temporal stability of plant productivity affects species' access to resources, exposure to stressors and strength of interactions with other species in the community, including support to the food web. The magnitude of temporal stability depends on how a species allocates resources among tissues and across phenological stages, such as vegetative growth versus reproduction. Understanding how plant phenological traits correlate with the long‐term stability of plant biomass is particularly important in highly variable ecosystems, such as drylands.We evaluated whether phenological traits predict the temporal stability of plant species productivity by correlating 18 years of monthly phenology observations with biannual estimates of above‐ground plant biomass for 98 plant species from semi‐arid drylands. We then paired these phenological traits with potential climate drivers to identify abiotic contexts that favour specific phenological strategies among plant species.Phenological traits predicted the stability of plant species above‐ground biomass. Plant species with longer vegetative phenophases not only had more stable biomass production over time but also failed to fruit in a greater proportion of years, indicating a growth–reproduction trade‐off. Earlier leaf‐out dates, longer fruiting duration and longer time lags between leaf and fruit production also predicted greater temporal stability.Species with stability‐promoting traits began greening in drier conditions than their unstable counterparts and experienced unexpectedly greater exposure to climate stress, indicated by the wider range of temperatures and precipitation experienced during biologically active periods.Our results suggest that bet‐hedging strategies that spread resource acquisition and reproduction over long time periods help to stabilize plant species productivity in variable environments, such as drylands. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog. 

Patterns of plant biomass partitioning are fundamental to estimates of primary productivity and ecosystem process rates. Allometric relationships between aboveground plant biomass and non-destructive measures of plant size, such as cover, volume, or stem density are widely used in plant ecology. Such size-biomass allometry is often assumed to be invariant for a given plant species, plant functional group, or ecosystem type. Allometric adjustments may be an important component of the short- or long-term responses of plants to abiotic conditions. We used 18 years of size-biomass data describing 85 plant species to investigate the sensitivity of allometry to precipitation, temperature, or drought across two seasons and four ecosystems in central New Mexico, USA. Our results demonstrate that many plant species adjust patterns in the partitioning of aboveground biomass under different climates and highlight the importance of long-term data for understanding functional differences among plant species. 

Abstract Primary production, a key regulator of the global carbon cycle, is highly responsive to variations in climate. Yet, a detailed, continental‐scale risk assessment of climate‐related impacts on primary production is lacking. We combined 16 years of MODIS NDVI data, a remotely sensed proxy for primary production, with observations from 1218 climate stations to derive values of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation and aridity. For the first time, we produced an empirically‐derived map of ecosystem sensitivity to climate across the conterminous United States. Over this 16‐year period, annual primary production values were most sensitive to precipitation and aridity in dryland and grassland ecosystems. Century‐long trends measured at the climate stations showed intensifying aridity and climatic variability in many of these sensitive regions. Dryland ecosystems in the western US may be particularly vulnerable to reductions in primary production and consequent degradation of ecosystem services as climate change and variability increase in the future.